Journal of Science and Innovative Development ISSN 2181-4317

DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE TE FLUCTUATIONS OF UZBEK SUM

Fakhodjonov Jakhongirmirzo Mirzakarim ugli, Berdinazarov Zafar Ulashovich, Mamasalaev Jamshid Kudrat ugli, Dodoyev Khasanjon Ilkhomjon ugli February 22, 2019

Abstract

<p>The paper examines the determinants of exchange rate uctuations of Uzbek sum using three econometric models as OLS (Ordinary Least Squares), ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and MLARCH (Multivariate Longmemory Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskadasticity). Model results show that the e ects of money supply and remi ances to the nominal and real exchange rates (USD/UZS) are found statistically signi cant; the impacts of ination and interest rate are not econometrically meaningful. It should be noted that the level of net trade inuences to the exchange rate is not conclusive in the following econometric analysis.</p>